🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."